How to invest during a bull run (and still sleep at night)

When the stock market is hot, it can feel like everyone else is getting rich while you’re still over here just…thinking about it. Add a big IPO, rising special funds, and an election year to the mix, and the FOMO can get loud.

Let’s slow it all down. In this guide, I’ll walk you through how to think about IPOs like Dangote’s, the NSE bull run, bonds, real estate, MMFs, and more—so you can invest with intention, not impulse.

First things first: investing is for everyone

I want to start here very clearly: investing is not just for “rich people” or finance nerds. It’s for anyone willing to be intentional, patient, and a little bit curious.

You don’t need millions to begin. You can start with one share, a small contribution to a money market fund, or a modest bond. The key is not the amount—it’s the habit and the strategy behind it.

Before you invest: build your safety net

Before you chase any hot opportunity, please make sure you have an emergency fund. This is what allows you to take risk in peace.

Your emergency fund should:

• Cover at least 3–6 months of your essential expenses

• Be easy to access quickly

• Not be exposed to big swings in value

That’s why a money market fund (MMF) is usually better than leaving your emergency savings in a regular bank account. MMFs typically:

• Pay a higher return than most savings accounts

• Allow you to withdraw within 24 hours (sometimes same day)

• Are relatively low risk compared to stocks or special funds

How to choose a money market fund (without overthinking it)

When picking an MMF, most people obsess over the return—12% vs 11% vs 13%. That 1% difference makes people hop from fund to fund like we used to club-hop. It’s really not that deep.

Here’s what actually matters more:

• Track record: Has the fund been around for a few years? Is it run by a known, regulated institution with a physical presence?

• Ease of use: Do they have an app or portal where you can see your balance, top up, and withdraw easily?

• Return vs inflation: Your real return is the MMF rate minus inflation. If inflation is around, say, 6–7%, a 12% MMF is effectively giving you about 5–6% in real terms.

So don’t just stare at the headline rate. Ask: “Is this comfortably above inflation? Is this provider solid? Is it easy for me to use?” If yes, you’re fine.

IPOs like Dangote: should you buy or wait?

Initial public offerings (IPOs) are exciting. A big African refinery listing across markets at what looks like an attractive price? Tempting.

But here’s the thing: globally, many IPOs are often overvalued at the start. The hype is high, the story is shiny, and the price sometimes bakes in a lot of optimism.

With an IPO like Dangote’s, there are two truths:

• It’s a great structural opportunity: As Africans, we rarely get easy access to major companies across borders. Being able to buy shares outside your home exchange is powerful for diversification.

• The price still matters: Even a great business can be a bad investment if you overpay. If the valuation is already very high, your upside is limited.

A sensible approach:

• Don’t buy just because “everyone is buying” or because the price looks “cheap” per share.

• Wait and see how the stock trades after listing—many IPOs dip after the hype cools.

• Keep it as one piece of a diversified portfolio, not your entire plan.

The NSE bull run: trade or invest?

When the market is on a bull run, you see stories of people making 10–20% in a day or a week, and it’s very easy to feel like you’re “late.”

There are two very different games happening here:

• Trading: You buy with a specific short-term target. For example, you buy at 20, aim to sell at 30 (50% gain), and you’re out. You’re riding price swings.

• Investing: You buy because you believe the company’s profits and cash flows will grow over years, not days. You care about the business, not just the chart.

Neither is “wrong,” but they require different mindsets:

• Trading = higher risk, higher stress, lots of monitoring, and you can lose quickly if you’re wrong.

• Investing = slower, steadier, focused on fundamentals and long-term goals like retirement.

If you’re new, I’d strongly lean you toward long-term investing. If you want to learn more about that style, I break it down in detail in this simple guide to the “boring” investing strategy that actually gets you to retirement.

How upcoming elections can affect your stocks

Elections always make investors nervous. “Should I sell before 2027? Should I move my money? Will the market crash?”

Historically, Kenyan elections have caused some uncertainty, but overall, markets have been relatively stable over the full year. That means:

• You may not see the wild gains of a bull run in an election year.

• But a stable year is still a win. No crash is a good outcome.

If you’re worried about buying at high prices today and then seeing a drop later, one smart approach is averaging down.

How averaging down works (with a simple example)

Averaging down means you don’t put all your money in at once. Instead, you buy in stages so your average cost per share comes down over time.

Example with KCB:

• You buy at 100.

• The price drops to 80. Instead of panicking, you buy more.

• Later it drops to 70. You buy again.

Your average buying price might end up somewhere in the 80s or even 70s, depending on how much you bought at each level. That gives you more room for profit if the stock recovers and grows.

This strategy only makes sense if:

• The company is fundamentally strong and still has growth potential.

• You’re using long-term money (not rent or school fees for next month).

How stock prices are actually set

It’s easy to imagine there’s some mysterious person in a back room deciding “Equity will be 90 today.” In reality, prices are set by the market.

Every trading day, buyers and sellers place orders at different prices. Where they match, trades happen—and that last matched price becomes the market price.

If you place a buy order at a very low price and no one is willing to sell to you at that price, your order simply won’t execute, and your money is returned. Same for a seller who asks too high with no buyers.

How to pick stocks without becoming an analyst

You do not need to build complex spreadsheets to begin. But you also shouldn’t buy a company you don’t understand.

Some simple rules:

• Start with what you know: Banks you use, supermarkets you shop at, fuel stations you frequent, telecoms you rely on. If a company is listed and you’re a customer, you already have some insight.

• Understand how they make money: If you can’t explain in one or two sentences how the company earns profits, don’t invest yet.

• Look for stability and growth potential: Legacy companies with long track records (like BAT) often have more predictable earnings and dividends.

For very fast-changing sectors like AI or cutting-edge tech, you need to be willing to follow the news closely. If that’s not your personality or you’re too busy, it may be better to stick to more stable sectors—or use funds instead of picking individual stocks.

Dividends vs capital gains: two ways stocks pay you

Stocks can reward you in two main ways:

• Dividends: Cash payments the company sends you, usually once or twice a year, out of its profits. Kenya is a very dividend-focused market—many investors just want their annual or interim cheque.

• Capital gains: The increase in the share price over time. If you buy at 50 and sell at 80, that 30 is your capital gain.

Important: gains you see on your app are unrealized until you sell. Green numbers are “paper profit.” It only becomes real when you actually exit the position.

What companies do with their profits is decided by the board. Sometimes they’ll pay dividends. Sometimes they’ll reinvest the cash into growth projects instead of paying it out. That can feel unfair if you were counting on the cash—but reinvestment can also increase the company’s value and your share price over time.

What to do with your dividends

Dividends are flexible. You can:

• Reinvest: Save them up and buy more shares. This accelerates compounding.

• Use them for regular costs: Some people use dividends to help pay school fees, rent, or family support.

• Mix both: Reinvest when you can, spend when you must.

If you’re building wealth, reinvesting dividends (at least partially) is powerful. But it’s also okay to design your portfolio so that, say, dividends help cover a predictable bill each year.

Real estate: solid, but slower

Real estate—land and houses—is often the biggest piece of someone’s net worth, simply because it’s expensive.

Pros:

• It’s a physical asset. No one can “delete” your land or house (though in Kenya, you still need to be very careful about titles and fraud).

• It tends to be more stable than stocks in terms of price swings.

Cons:

• Growth can be slow. A 6–7% year-on-year increase is common in some areas, which can feel underwhelming compared to a hot stock market.

• It’s not very liquid. You can’t sell a bedroom to raise 50k.

• Some areas are oversupplied (like parts of Kilimani), which can cap price growth and rental yields.

Real estate is still useful in a portfolio—for stability, for diversification, and sometimes for rental income. Just don’t compare its growth speed directly to a bull run in stocks. They serve different purposes.

Bonds: the underrated “make money while you sleep” tool

Bonds are one of my favourite asset classes, especially government bonds.

When you buy a bond, you’re lending money to the government. In return, they promise:

• To pay you regular interest (called coupons) every 6 months or so

• To return your principal at the end of the bond term (say, 5, 10, or 20 years)

Why I like them:

• Predictable cash flow: You know in advance which months you’ll be paid and approximately how much.

• Great for fixed goals: Perfect for things like school fees, rent, or other regular obligations.

One popular strategy is building a bond ladder—buying different bonds whose coupon dates are staggered so that you receive interest every month of the year. That’s as close to “set it and forget it” passive income as most of us will get.

You can either:

• Buy bonds directly yourself, or

• Invest through a fixed-income fund, where a fund manager buys bonds on your behalf and you earn a pooled return.

Nothing in investing is 100% guaranteed, and some countries have had issues with defaults or restructurings. But generally, government bonds sit on the lower-risk side of the spectrum compared to stocks and special funds.

Special funds, crypto, and other high-risk plays

There’s a growing appetite for higher-risk, higher-return investments in Kenya—things like special funds, active trading strategies, and even crypto.

There’s nothing wrong with taking risk if:

• Your emergency fund is in place.

• You’re not using money you’ll need soon.

• You understand the product at least at a basic level.

For example, holding a small amount of Bitcoin as a speculative bet is very different from putting your rent money into a coin because someone on social media hyped it.

If you’re curious about how more speculative assets fit into a broader plan, you might also find it useful to read about how defensive assets like gold and other hedges can play a role in uncertain times.

Living abroad: more income, but also more expenses

From the outside, it’s easy to assume that anyone earning in euros, pounds, or dollars is automatically “rich.” The reality is more nuanced.

Yes, gross salaries are often higher. But so are:

• Housing costs

• Utilities and contracts (often inflexible—you pay whether you’re home or not)

• Childcare (which can easily run into hundreds or thousands of euros a month)

• Repairs and services (a simple plumbing issue can cost what feels like a small fortune)

Many people actually find that their net after expenses is lower abroad than it was back home. That’s why budgeting and tracking are just as important in Europe or the US as they are in Nairobi or Lagos.

Budgeting: facing your numbers on purpose

You can’t invest well if you don’t know where your money is going.

A simple approach:

• Use a spreadsheet or Google Sheet to list your income and all your expenses.

• Once a week, sit down with your bank/M-Pesa statements and update the sheet.

• Notice patterns: impulse buys, transaction fees, “small” snacks that add up.

At the end of the month, if you have an extra 5,000 or 10,000, you have a choice:

• Spend it immediately (the usual default)

• Or deliberately put it into an investment—MMF, bond, stock, etc.

That decision, repeated month after month, is what quietly builds wealth in the background.

Building a balanced portfolio (in simple terms)

A good portfolio is not all-or-nothing. It’s not “I’m 100% in stocks” or “I only buy land.” It’s a mix that reflects:

• Your age and time horizon

• Your risk tolerance

• Your goals (school fees vs retirement vs buying a home)

For example, someone might hold:

• Real estate (30–40%) for stability and long-term value

• Stocks (20–30%) for growth

• Special funds or higher-risk plays (10–20%) for upside

• Bonds (10–20%) for predictable income

• MMF (for emergency fund and short-term goals)

The exact percentages will differ for you, but the idea is the same: mix risk and safety instead of betting everything on one thing.

Beware social media hype

One of the quiet risks in today’s markets is coordinated hype. If a few big voices online start pushing a particular stock or coin, their followers can drive the price up. Those who got in early can then sell to the latecomers at a profit.

To protect yourself:

• Don’t buy just because someone you like on social media mentioned it.

• Ask: “How does this business actually make money? Is the price justified?”

• Be extra cautious with anything described as a “sure thing” or “guaranteed.”

If you do buy something hyped and it drops, don’t rush to sell at a loss unless the fundamentals have truly changed. And never put in money you’ll need soon.

Your biggest advantage: intentionality

If there’s one thing I want you to take away, it’s this: the opportunities you see others using are not reserved for a chosen few. You have access too—maybe at a smaller scale, but access all the same.

Your edge is not secret knowledge. It’s:

• Having an emergency fund before you take risk

• Knowing your numbers through a simple budget

• Starting with what you understand

• Being patient and consistent, especially when the hype dies down

Whether the NSE is in a bull run or moving sideways, whether there’s an election coming or not, the basics don’t change: protect your downside, diversify, and invest according to your goals—not your FOMO.